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Curtis Smith

Division Director, Directorate Fellow

Research Areas:

Biography:
​Curtis Smith, Ph.D., is the Director for the Idaho National Laboratory Nuclear Safety and Regulatory Research Division. He is the past Risk Informed Safety Margins Characterization Pathway (RISMC) lead under the DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program, past project manager for the NRC's SAPHIRE risk analysis software, serves as a lead instructor for the NRC’s Risk Assessment Training program, and is a technical lead for the NASA Safety Mission Success project at INL. His most recent appointment is in serving as the lead for the Risk Integration and Uncertainty Working Group for the NASA Interagency Nuclear Safety Review Panel (INSRP) on the Mars 2020 mission. Dr. Smith has been in the risk and reliability assessment field for more than 28 years. He has worked at INL as a risk analysis specialist and has served as a consultant for a diverse set of organizations including the Department of Energy (DOE), the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and other government and private companies. He also was a visiting scientist to the OECD-sponsored Halden Reactor Project, performing human performance-related research, was the Chair of the ASME Safety Engineering and Risk Analysis (SERAD) Executive Committee, is currently on the Board for the International Association of Probabilistic Safety and Management (IAPSAM) organization, and is a past President of the Idaho State University College of Engineering Advisory Council (EAC). Dr. Smith has published over 200 papers, books, and reports on risk and reliability theory and application. He has taught over 100 technical and university courses on a variety of reliability and safety topics. He holds a Ph.D. in nuclear engineering from Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He is a member of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers, American Nuclear Society, and the Idaho Academy of Sciences.

Education:

​Ph.D., Nuclear Engineering - Masachusetts Institute of Technology

M.S., Nuclear Engineering - Idaho State University

B.S., General Education - Idaho State University

Affiliations:

​American Nuclear Society
American Society of Mechanical Engineers
Idaho Academy of Science

Publications:

​Peer-reviewed archival contributions as journal papers or books

Sampath, R., Montanari, N., Akinci, N., Prescott, S., Smith, C., Large-scale solitary wave simulation with implicit incompressible SPH, Journal of Ocean Engineering and Marine Energy, DOI 10.1007/s40722-016-0060-8., June 2016.


Mandelli, D., C. Smith, T. Riley, J. Nielsen, A. Alfonsi, J. Cogliati, C. Rabiti, J. Schroeder, “BWR Station Blackout: A RISMC Analysis Using RAVEN and RELAP5-3D,” Nuclear Technology, Volume 193, Number 1, January 2016, pp 161-174.


Francesco, D., E. Zio, C. Smith, and V. Rychkov, "Integrated Deterministic and Probabilistic Safety Analysis for Safety Assessment of Nuclear Power Plants," Science and Technology of Nuclear Installations, vol. 2015, 2015. doi:10.1155/2015/136940.


Mandelli, D., S. Prescott, C. Smith, A. Alfonsi, C. Rabiti, J. Cogliati, and R. Kinoshita, “A Flooding Induced Station Blackout Analysis for a Pressurized Water Reactor Using the RISMC Toolkit,” Science and Technology of Nuclear Installations, vol. 2015, 2015. doi:10.1155/2015/308163.


Groth, K. and C. Smith, “A Bayesian method for using simulator data to enhance human error probabilities assigned by existing HRA methods,” Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Vol. 128, pp. 32-40, 2014.


Smith, C. and D. Mandelli, “A Risk-informed Approach to Safety Margins Analysis,” Nuclear Engineering International, June 2013.


Plischke, E., E. Borgonovo, C. Smith, “Global Sensitivity Measures from Given Data,” European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 226, Issue 3, pp. 536-550, May 2013.


Borgonovo, E. and C. L. Smith, “Composite Multi-linearity, Epistemic Uncertainty and Risk Achievement Worth,” European Journal of Operational Research, May 2012.


Borgonovo, E. and C. L. Smith, “Uncertainty in importance measures: Developing the Epistemic Risk Achievement Worth,” Advances in Safety, Reliability, and Risk Management, ISBN 978-0-415-68379-1, 2012.


Kelly, D. L. and Smith, C. L., Bayesian Inference for Probabilistic Risk Assessment, Springer London, Springer Series in Reliability Engineering, Book ISBN: 978-1-84996-186-8.


Borgonovo, E., and C. L. Smith, A Study of Interactions in the Risk Assessment of Complex Engineering Systems: an Application to Space PSA, Operations Research, Vol 59, No. 6, 2011.


Kelly, D. L. and Smith, C. L., “Bayesian inference in probabilistic risk assessment – The current state of the art,” Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 94, Issue 2 (2009) 628-643.


Bucci, P., J. Kirschenbaum, L.A. Mangan, T. Aldemir, C. L. Smith, and T. Wood, "Construction of event-tree/fault-tree models from a Markov approach to dynamic system reliability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 93 (11) (2008) 1616–1627.


Smith, C. L., J. Knudsen, K. Kvarfordt, and T. Wood, “Key Attributes of the SAPHIRE Risk and Reliability Analysis Software for Risk-Informed Probabilistic Applications,” Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 93, (2008) 1151–1164.


Smith, C. L. and E. Borgonovo, “Decision making during nuclear power plant incidents - A new approach to the evaluation of precursor events,” Risk Analysis, 27 (4), pp. 1027-1042, August 2007.


Bucci, P., Kirschenbaum, J., Aldemir, T., Smith, C., Wood, T., “Generating dynamic fault trees from Markov models,”  Transactions of the American Nuclear Society, volume 95, issue , year 2006, pp. 344 - 346.


Pagani, L., C. L. Smith, and G. Apostolakis, "Making decisions for incident management in nuclear power plants using probabilistic safety assessment," Risk Decision and Policy, 9: 271-295, 2004.


Smith, C. L., J. K. Knudsen, and M. B. Calley, “Calculating and addressing uncertainty for risk-based allowable outage times,” Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 66 (1999) 41-47.


Smith, C. L., “Calculating Conditional Core Damage Probabilities for Nuclear Power Plant Operations,” Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 59, 1998.


Smith, C. L. and R. D. Fowler, “SAPHIRE ‘Recover Cut Sets’ editor: a technique for automating the manipulation of PRA cut sets,” Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 54 (1996), 47-52.


Smith, C. L., “Uncertainty Analysis Using Taylor Series Expansion and a Spreadsheet,” Journal of the Idaho Academy of Science, Vol. 30, Issue 2, 1995.


NUREG-series NRC peer-reviewed reports
Smith, C. L. et al, Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) Version 8, NUREG/CR-7039, Vol. 1-7, March 2011.


Smith, C. L. et al, Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE), NUREG/CR-6952, Vol. 1-7, September 2008.


Gertman, D. I., H. S. Blackman, J. L. Marble, J. C. Byers, and C. L. Smith, The SPAR-H Human Reliability Analysis Method, NUREG/CR-6883, August 2005.


Smith, C. L., V. N. Shah, T. Kao, and G. Apostolakis, Incorporating Aging Effects into Probabilistic Risk Assessment   A Feasibility Study Utilizing Reliability Physics Modeling, NUREG/CR 5632, 2000.


Smith, C. L. et al., Testing, Verifying, and Validating SAPHIRE Versions 6.0 and 7.0, NUREG/CR-6688, October 2000.


Russell, K. D., et al. Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) Version 6.0 - System Overview Manual, NUREG/CR-6532, May 1999.


Van Horn, R. L., et al., Data Loading Manual, NUREG/CR-6116 Vol. 10, INEL-94/0039, April 1995.


Jones, J. L. et al., Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) Version 5.0, Volume 9—Validation and Verification (V&V) Manual, NUREG/CR-6116, Vol. 9, October 1994.


Zeigler, S. L., et al., Verification and Validation of the SAPHIRE Version 4.0 PRA Software Package, NUREG/CR-6145, EGG-2713, February 1994.


Smith, C. L., P. G. Ellison, and J. A. Schroeder, An Assessment of The Risk Impact For The Integration Of Surveillance Testing And Maintenance At Nuclear Power Plants, NUREG/CR-5992, June 1993.


Simion, G. P., et al., Risk Analysis of Highly Combustible Gas Storage, Supply, and Distribution Systems in Pressurized Water Reactor Plants, NUREG/CR-5759, June 1993.


Smith, C. L., R. D. Fowler, and L. M. Wolfram, Development and Use of a Train-Level Probabilistic Risk Assessment, NUREG/CR-5976, May 1993.


Stewart, M. A. and C. L. Smith, Generic Service Water System Risk Based Inspection Guide, NUREG/CR-5865, May 1992.


External technical reports
Hess, S., L. Lin, R. Sampath, S. Prescott, and C. Smith, Smoothed-particle Hydrodynamics-based Wind Representation, INL/EXT-16-40614, December 2016.


Smith, C. L., B. Bhandari, C. Muchmore, A. Tahhan, A. Wells, L. Nichols, C. Pope, Flooding Fragility Experiments and Prediction, INL/EXT-16-39963, September 2016.


Yoo, J., YJ. Choi, and C. L. Smith, RELAP-7 Software Verification and Validation Plan Requirements Traceability Matrix Part 2 – Code Assessment Strategy, Procedure, and RTM Update, INL/EXT-16-40015, September 2016.


Mandelli, D., D. Maljovec, A. Alfonsi, C. Parisi, P. Talbot, C. Picoco, J. Cogliati, C. Wang, C. Smith, and C. Rabiti, Data Analysis Approached for the Risk-Informed Safety Margins Characterization Toolkit, INL/EXT-16-39851, September 2016.


Smith, C., C. Rabiti, R. Martineau, R. Szilard, Risk-Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMC) Pathway Technical Program Plan, INL/EXT-11-22977, Revision 4, September 2016.


Pope, C., B. Savage, A. Sorensen, B. Bhandari, D. A. Kamerman, A. Tahhan, C. Muchmore, G. Roberts, E. Ryan, S. Suresh, A. Wells, C. Smith, Status of the Flooding Fragility Testing Development, INL/EXT-16-39115, June 2016.


Coleman, J., C. Smith, Plan to Verify and Validate Multi-Hazard Risk-Informed Margin Management Methods and Tools, INL/EXT-16-39195, June 2016.


Boring, R., D. Mandelli, M. Rasmussen, S. Herberger, T. Ulrich, K. Groth, C. Smith, Integration of Human Reliability Analysis Models into the Simulation-Based Framework for the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization Toolkit, INL/EXT-16-39015, June 2016.


Szilard, R., J. Coleman, S. Prescott, C. Parisi, C. Smith, RISMC Toolkit and Methodology Research and Development Plan for External Hazards Analysis, INL/EXT-16-38089, March 2016.


Coleman, J., C. Smith, D. Burns, A. Kammerer, Development Plan for the External Hazards Experimental Group, INL/EXT-16-38328, March 2016.


Alfonsi, A., C. Rabiti, J. Cogliati, D. Mandelli, J. Cogliati, C. Wang. P. Talbot, P. Talbot, D. Maljovec, C. Smith, RAVEN Theory Manual, INL/EXT-16-38178, March 2016.


Rabiti, C., A. Alfonsi, D. Huang, F. Gleicher, B. Wang, H. Abdel-Khalik, V. Pascucci, C. Smith, System reliability analysis capabilities and surrogate modal application in RAVEN, INL/EXT-16-37243, November 2015.


Smith, C., S. Prescott, E. Ryan, D. Calhoun, R. Sampath, S. Anderson, C. Casteneda, Flooding capability for river-based scenarios, INL/EXT-15-37091, October 2015.


Alfonsi, A., C. Rabiti, J. Cogliati, D. Mandelli, S. Sen, R. Kinoshita, C. Wang. P. Talbot, D. Maljovec, A. Slaughter, C. Smith, Dynamic event tree advancements and control logic improvements, INL/EXT-15-36758, September 2015.


Ma, Z., C. Smith, S. Prescott, Margin assessment approach for modeling total plant response to flooding events project, INL/LTD-15-36630, September 2015.


Smith, C., S. Prescott, K. Kvarfordt, R. Sampath, K. Larson, Status of the phenomena representation, 3D modeling, and cloud-based software architecture development, INL/EXT-15-36448, September 2015.


Mandelli, D., C. Smith, A. Alfonsi, C. Rabiti, J. Cogliati, H. Zhao, I. Rinaldi, D. Maljovec, P. Talbot, B. Wang, V. Pascucci, Reduced order model implementation in the risk-informed safety margin characterization toolkit, INL/EXT-15-36649, September 2015.


Smith, C., YJ. Choi, J. Yoo, RELAP-7 software verification and validation plan requirements traceability matrix part 1 – physical and numerical methods, INL/EXT-15-36684, September 2015.


Coleman, J., S. Prescott, C. Smith, R. Sampath, Demonstration of coupled multievent scenario at a nuclear power plant, INL/EXT-15-36801, September 2015.


Joe, J., R. Boring, S. Herberger, T. Miyake, D. Mandelli, C. Smith, Proof-of-concept demonstration for computation-based human reliability analysis: modeling operator performance during flooding scenarios, INL/EXT-15-36741, September 2015.


Szilard, R., C. Frepoli,  J. Yurko,  R. Youngblood, A. Alfonsi, A. Zoino, C., C. Rabiti, H. Zhang, P. Bayless, H. Zhao,  G. Swindlehurst, C. Smith, Industry Application Emergency Core Cooling System Cladding Acceptance Criteria Early Demonstration, INL/EXT-15-36541, September 2015.


Prescott, S., D. Mandelli, R. Sampath, C. Smith, L. Lin, 3D simulation of external flooding events for the RISMC pathway, INL/EXT-15-36773, September 2015.


Smith, C., S. Prescott, E. Ryan, J. Coleman, E. Ryan, B. Bhandari, D. Sludern, C. Pope, R. Sampath, Progress on the industry application external hazard analyses early demonstration, INL/EXT-15-36749, September 2015.


Mandelli, D., C. Smith, A. Alfonsi, C. Rabiti, Improved sampling algorithms in the risk-informed safety margin characterization toolkit, INL/EXT-15-35933, August 2015.


Szilard, R., J. Coleman, C. Smith, S. Prescott, A. Kammerer, R. Youngblood, C. Pope, Industry Application External Hazard Analyses Problem Statement, INL/EXT-15-36101, July 2015.


Alfonsi, A., C. Rabiti, D. Mandelli, J. Cogliati, S. Sen, C. Smith, Improving Limit Surface Search Algorithms in RAVEN Using Acceleration Schemes, INL/EXT-15-36100, July 2015.


Kvarfordt, K. and C. Smith, Development of Flood Hazard Information Digests for Operating NPP Sites Project Work Plan, INL/LTD-15-35863, July 2015.


Boring, R., D. Mandelli, J. Joe, C. Smith, K. Groth, A Research Roadmap for Computation-based Human Reliability Analysis, INL/EXT-15-36051, July 2015.


Szilard, R., R. Youngblood, C. Frepoli,  J. Yurko,  G. Swindlehurst, H. Zhang,  H. Zhao,  P. Bayless, C. Rabiti,  A. Alfonsi,  C. Smith, Industry Application Emergency Core Cooling System Cladding Acceptance Criteria Problem Statement, INL/EXT-15-35073, April 2015.


Zhegang, M. and C. Smith, Work Plan Development for Modeling Total Plant Response to Flooding Events Project, INL/LTD-14-33671, March 2015.


Prescott, S., C. Smith, and T. Koonce, Case Study for Enhanced Accident Tolerance Design Changes, INL/EXT-14-32355, Revision 1, September 2014.


Prescott, S., R. Sampath, C. Smith, and T. Koonce, Prototype Development Capabilities of 3D Spatial Interactions and Failures During Scenario Simulation, INL/EXT-14-33211, September 2014.


Szilard, R., C. Smith, R. Youngblood, RISMC Advanced Safety Analysis Project Plan – FY2015 – FY2019, INL/EXT-14-33186, September 2014.


Vang, L., C. Smith, S. Prescott, Cloud-based Architecture Capabilities Summary Report, INL/EXT-14-33263, September 2014.


Mandelli, D., C. Smith, Z. Ma, T. Riley, J. Nielsen, A. Alfonsi, C. Rabiti, J. Cogliati, Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization Methods Development Work, INL/EXT-14-33191, September 2014.


Vang, L., C. Smith, S. Prescott, Implementation of a Bayesian Engine for Uncertainty Analysis, INL/EXT-14-33003, August 2014.


Prescott, S., R. Sampath, C. Smith, and T. Yang, 3D modeling engine representation summary report, INL/EXT-14-32978, August 2014.


Smith, C., Mandelli, D., S. Prescott, A. Alfonsi, C. Rabiti, J. Colgiati, and R. Kinoshita, Analysis of PWR SBO caused by external flooding using the RISMC Toolkit, INL/EXT-14-32906, August 2014.


Szilard, R. and C. Smith, Advanced Reactor Safety Program – Stakeholder Interaction and Feedback, INL/EXT-14-32928, August 2014.


Ma, Z., D. Mandelli, C. Smith, Comparing RELAP/RAVEN Simulation Results with Traditional PRA Model Results on the Boiling Water Reactor Station Black Out Case Study, INL/EXT-14-32803, August 2014.


Prescott, S., C. Smith, and T. Koonce, Case Study for Enhanced Accident Tolerance Design Changes, INL/EXT-14-32355, June 2014.


McCarthy, K., J. Busby, B. Hallbert, S. Bragg-Sitton, C. Smith, C. Barnard, Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Integrated Program Plan, INL/EXT-11-23452, Revision 2, June 2014.


Smith, C., S. Prescott, and T. Koonce, Advanced Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Demonstration, INL/EXT-14-31876, April 2014.


Knudsen, J., S. Prescott, C. Smith, and T. Wood, SAPHIRE 8 Web Based Application Specification Plan to Implement a Web Based Implementation of SAPHIRE, INL/EXT-14-31884, April 2014.


Smith, C., R. Szilard, K. McCarthy, Advanced Safety Analysis Program Objectives and Value Proposition, INL/EXT-13-30460, October 2013.


Smith, C. and Z. Ma, SAPHIRE 8 Level 2 Modeling Help, INL/MIS-13-30432, October 2013.


Smith, C., Advanced Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Technical Exchange Meeting, INL/EXT-13-30170, September 2013.


Smith, C., Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program FY13 Status Update for EPRI - RISMC Collaboration, INL/EXT-13-30255, September 2013.


Smith, C., C. Phelan, and D. Schwieder, Fukushima Daiichi Information Repository FY13 Status, INL/EXT-13-30234, September 2013.


Coleman, J., C. Rabiti, C. Smith, R. Szilard, R. Youngblood, and H. Zhang, Advanced Safety Analysis Program Strategy and Use-Case Analysis, INL/EXT-13-30210, September 2013.


Mandelli, D., C. Smith, T. Riley, J. Schroeder, C. Rabiti, A. Alfonsi, J. Nielsen, D. Maljovec, B. Wang, and V. Pascucci, Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Support and Modeling for the Boiling Water Reactor Station Black Out Case Study Using RELAP and RAVEN, INL/EXT-13-30203, September 2013.


Youngblood, R. and C. Smith, Technical Approach and Results from the Fuels Pathway on an Alternative Selection Case Study, INL/EXT-13-30195, September 2013.


Smith, C. and J. Knudsen, Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Technical Basis Guide Describing How to Perform Safety Margin Configuration Risk Management, INL/EXT-13-30019, August 2013.


Rabiti, C., A. Alfonsi, D. Mandelli, J. Cogliati, R. Martineau, C. Smith, Deployment and Overview of RAVEN capabilities for a Probabilistic Risk Assessment Demo for a PWR Station Blackout, INL/EXT-13-29510, June 2013.


Smith, C., D. Schwieder, C. Phelan, D. Mandelli, R. Youngblood, Small Modular Reactors (SMR) Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Detailed Technical Framework Specification, INL/EXT-13-28974, April 2013.


Smith, C., D. Mandelli, Integrating Safety Assessment Methods using the Risk Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMC) Approach, INL/EXT-13-28565, March 2013.


McCarthy, K. et al., Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Integrated Program Plan, INL/EXT-11-23452, February 2013.


Smith, C., C. Rabiti, R. Martineau, Risk Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMC) Pathway Technical Program Plan, INL/EXT-11-22977, November 2012.


Ma, Z., et al., SPAR Integrated Capabilities Model (SPAR-ICM) Project, INL/LTD-12-27648, October 2012.


Smith, C. L., et al, A Framework to Expand and Advance Probabilistic Risk Assessment to Support Small Modular Reactors, INL/EXT-12-27345, September 2012.


Diego Mandelli and C. L. Smith, Review of Novel and Advanced Risk Assessment Methods, INL/LTD-12-26096, September 2012.


Prescott, S., and C. L. Smith, SAPHIRE 8 Implementation and Benefits of BDD Methods, INL/EXT-12-26089, September 2012.


Smith, C. L., D. Schwieder, C. Phelan, A. Bui, P. Bayless, Risk Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMC) Advanced Test Reactor Demonstration Case Study, INL/EXT-12-27015, August 2012.


Smith, C. L., Knudsen, J. K., and McCabe, P. H., Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) Model and SAPHIRE Version 8  Common-Cause Failure User Handbook, INL/LTD-12-24727, May 2012.


Ma, Z., C.L. Smith, J. Schroeder, and T. Wood, Peach Bottom Unit 2 Level 2 PRA Model Implementation and Enhancements with SAPHIRE 8 for ICM, INL/EXT-12-25238, May 2012.


Dezfuli, H., et al., NASA SP-2010-580, NASA System Safety Handbook, Vol. 1, System Safety Framework and Concepts for Implementation, November 2011.


Dezfuli, H., et al., NASA SP-2011-3422, NASA Risk Management Handbook, November 2011.


Vedros, K. and C. Smith, Critical Design Reviews Project: SAPHIRE 8, INL-EXT-11-23443, September 2011.


Phelan, C., D. Schwieder, and C. L. Smith, Fukushima Daiichi Information Repository Design Document, INL/MIS-11-22894, July 2011.


C. Smith, Initial Discussion of the Fukushima Accident, March 2011.


Smith, C. L., et al, Augmenting PRA through Consideration of Malevolent Initiators, INL/EXT-11-21429, March 2011.


Dezfuli, H., et al., NASA SP-2010-576, Risk Informed Decision Making Handbook, April 2010.


C. Smith, SAPHIRE 8 Software Quality Assurance Plan, INL-EXT-09-16697, August 2009.


Kelly, D., C.L. Smith, K. Vedros, H. Dezfuli, and W. Galyean, NASA SP-2009-569, Bayesian Inference for NASA Risk and Reliability Analysis, June 2009.


Wood, T. and C. Smith, SAPHIRE 8 Software Acceptance Test Plan, INL-EXT-09-16236, June 2009.


Youngblood, R. W., C. L. Smith, and D. L. Kelly, Observations on the Component Boundary Issue, INL/MIS-09-15945, May 2009.


Smith, C. L. et al, SAPHIRE 8 New Features and Capabilities, INL/EXT-08-14841, August 2008.


Smith, C. L. and D. L. Kelly, Turning Bayesian, June, 2007.


Dezfuli, H., C. L. Smith, and G. Apostolakis, Chapter 2 (System Safety), NPR 8715.3 NASA General Safety Program Requirements, April 2007.


Smith, C. L. and D. L. Kelly, Application of Bayesian Probability Inference to PRA of Space Systems, NASA Workshop, Rockville, MD, April 2007.


Smith, C. L., Chapter 17 Importance Measures, Risk Ranking, and their Application, Chapter 18 Examples of Bayesian Updating, NASA PRA Methodology PRAM-6, October 2006.


Prassinos, P., M. Stamatelatos, C. L. Smith, J. Young, and C. Everline, Constellation Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA):  Design Considerations for CEV, May, 2006.


Smith, C. L. and D. L. Kelly, Advanced Risk Assessment Topics Course P-501 -- Addressing Key Issues in the Development and Use of PRA for Decision Making Activities, October 2005.


Smith, C. L., S. Beck, and B. Galyean, Separation Requirements for a Hydrogen Production Plant and High-Temperature Nuclear Reactor, September 2005, INL/EXT-05-00137.


Laumann, K., H. Svengren, P.O. Braarud, J. Ludvigsen, C. L. Smith, Effects of Task Complexity on Operators' Performance in Eight Medium Loss of Coolant Accident Scenarios (Recovery Experiment 2002/2003), OECD Halden Reactor Project Report, HWR-757, March 2004.


Smith, C. L., Risk-Informed Incident Management for Nuclear Power Plants, M.I.T. Doctoral Thesis, September 2002.


Smith, C. L. and S. Fairfax, Availability Estimates of the Power Supply System configurations for 111 8th Avenue in New York City, January 2002.


Smith, C. L. and S. Fairfax, Availability Estimate of the Power Supply System Island and Double Bus Designs for the Durst Building in New York City, December 2001.


Borgonovo, E., C. L. Smith, G. Apostolakis, Incident Management via Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Formal Decision-Making Techniques for Nuclear Power Plants, MIT-NED-EDF-2000-01, February 2000.


Smith, C. L., E. Borgonovo, G. Apostolakis, Review of International Activities in Accident Management and Decision Making in the Nuclear Industry, MIT-NED-EDF-1999-01, May 1999.


Smith, C. L., T. A. Thatcher, and J.K. Knudsen, Systems Analysis Programs for Hands On Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) Basic Training Course and SAPHIRE Basics Workshop Manual, INEEL/EXT-1998-1136, October, 1998.


Smith, C. L. editor, SAPHIRE FACETS, bi-annual newsletter published for the INL-sponsored SAPHIRE Users Group, 1997 to present.


Smith, C. L. and J. A. Schroeder, Risk Assessment in Event Evaluations, January 1997, training material for U.S. NRC.


Smith, C. L. and T. A. Thatcher, Advanced IRRAS Training Course Manual, January 1997, training material for U.S. NRC.


Smith, C. L. and T. A. Thatcher, IRRAS Basics Training Course Manual, December 1996, training material for U.S. NRC.


Smith, C. L. et al, Configuration Risk Profile Analysis for the Brunswick Nuclear Power Plant, NRC Letter Report, April 1996.


Hansen, J. L. and C. L. Smith, INEL Evaluation of the Boiling Water Reactor Owner’s Group NEDC-32160P Topical Report “Calibration Interval Extension,” INEL-96/0178, June 1996.


Smith, C. L. et al, Configuration Risk Profile Analysis for the Crystal River 3 Nuclear Power Plant, NRC Letter Report, April 1996.


Siu, N. et al., On the Use of Importance Measures for Prioritizing Systems, Structures, and Components: Sensitivity Studies and External Events, Technical letter report, NRC JCN W6144, November 1995.


Smith, C. L., J. K. Knudsen, and D. L. Kelly, Linkage of PRA Models - Phase I Results, July 1995.

Siu, N, et al., Use of Importance Measures for Prioritizing IST Procedures, NRC Letter Report, June 1995.


Ellison, P. G., et al., The Risk Significance of Induced Steam Generator Tube Rupture, INEL-95/0641, August 1995.


Smith, C. L. and J. K. Knudsen, Parameter Uncertainty for the Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) SAPHIRE Plant Models, INEL-94/0056, September 1994.


Gregg, R. E., C. L. Smith, and R. W. Garner, Cost/Benefit Analysis of GSI-15:  Radiation Effects on Reactor Vessel Supports, EGG-SSRE-9458, June 1994.


Thatcher, T. A., et al., Update to the Advanced Test Reactor Probabilistic Risk Assessment (Level 1, 2 and 3 Including Shutdown Operations, EGG-PRP-11229, EG&G Idaho, Inc., May 1994.


EG&G Idaho, Improved Estimates of Separation Distances To Prevent Unacceptable Damage To Nuclear Power Plant Structures From Hydrogen Detonation For Gaseous Hydrogen Storage, EGG-SSRE-9747, May 1994.


Smith, C. L. and J. L. Hansen, An Evaluation of the B&W Owners Group BAW-10182 Topical Report-Justification for the Increase in ESFAS Test Intervals, EGG-RTAP-10925, September 1993.


Smith, C. L. and R. L. VanHorn, Cost-Benefit Uncertainty Analysis-Issues Concerning the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's DPR Ratio, EGG-J-93092, September 1993.


Smith, C. L. and M. B. Calley, Calculating Risk-Based Allowable Outage Times, EGG-J-93076, August 1993.


Bickel, J. H., et al, Eastern European Reactor Safety and Management: A Preliminary Assessment, JHB-114-92, October 1992.


Stewart, M. A. and C. L. Smith, Current Nuclear Industry Practices With Regard To The Integration Of Surveillances, EGG-SSRE-10102, April 1992.


Van Horn, R., C. L. Smith, and G. P. Simion, Risk Analysis of Highly Combustible Gas Storage, Supply, and Distribution Systems in Pressurized Water Reactor Plants:  Supplementary Cost/Benefit Analysis, EGG-SSRE-10198, March 1992.


Simion, G. P., et al., Scoping Risk Analysis of Highly Combustible Gas Storage, Supply, and Distribution Systems in Boiling Water Reactor Plants, EGG-NTA-9082, April 1991.

 

Conference and topical meeting papers

Vaibhav Yadav, V. Agarwal, A. V. Gribok, C. L. Smith. "ASSESSMENT OF DYNAMIC PRA TECHNIQUES WITH INDUSTRY-AVERAGE COMPONENT PERFORMANCE DATA". 10th International Topical Meeting on Nuclear Plant Instrumentation, Control, and Human-Machine Interface Technologies (NPIC & HMIT 2017), San Francisco, CA, June 11-15, 2017, Pp 814-820.


Ma., Z., C. Smith, and S. Prescott, “A Simulation-Based Dynamic Approach for External Flooding Analysis in Nuclear Power Plants.” Proceedings of The 20th Pacific Basin Nuclear Conference - Vol 1, Springer, Hong Jiang Editor, pp 55-70, ISBN 978-981-10-2310-1, 2017.


Agarwal, V., P. Chatterjee, A. Gribok, and C. Smith, “Online Risk Monitoring of Nuclear Power Plants: System and Its Components Ordering Based on Cost Importance,” PSAM 13, Seoul, Korea, October 2016.


Joe, J., R. Shirley, D. Mandelli, R. Boring, and C. Smith, The development of dynamic human reliability analysis simulations for inclusion in risk informed safety margin characterization frameworks, Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Applied Human Factors and Ergonomics and the Affiliated Conferences, Procedia Manufacturing 3 (2015), 1305-1311.


Smith, C., D. Mandelli, and S. Prescott, Analysis of Safety Impacts from External Flooding Using the RISMC Toolkit, Proceedings of ICONE-23, 23rd International Conference on Nuclear Engineering, Chiba, Japan. May 2015.


Mandelli, D., Z. Ma, and C. Smith, Dynamic and Classical PRA: A BWR SBO Case Comparison, Proceedings of the American Nuclear Society (ANS) Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) Conference, Sun Valley, Idaho, April 2015.


Smith, C., Tutorial Session:  Bayesian Inference in PRA,  Proceedings of the American Nuclear Society (ANS) Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) Conference, Sun Valley, Idaho, April 2015.


Mandelli, D., S. Prescott, C. Smith, A. Alfonsi, C. Rabiti, J. Cogliati, R. Kinoshita, Modeling of a Flooding Induced Station Blackout for a Pressurized Water Reactor Using the RISMC Toolkit, Proceedings of the American Nuclear Society (ANS) Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) Conference, Sun Valley, Idaho, April 2015.


Mandelli, D., C. Smith, A. Alfonsi, C. Rabiti, “Analysis of the space propulsion system problem using RAVEN,” PSAM 12, Honolulu, HI, June 2014.


Maljovec, D., S. Liua, BeiWanga, V. Pascuccia, P.T. Bremerb, “Analyzing simulation-based PRA data through clustering,” PSAM 12, Honolulu, HI, June 2014.


Mandelli, D. and C. Smith, “Station Blackout Case Study,” PSAM 12, Honolulu, HI, June 2014.


Mandelli, D., C. Smith, C. Rabiti, A. Alfonsi, R. Youngblood, V. Pascucci, B. Wang, D. Maljovec, T. Aldemir, A. Yilmaz, D. Zamalieva, P. Bremer, Dynamic PRA: An Overview of New Algorithms to Generate, Analyze, and Visualize Data, ANS 2013 Winter Meeting, DC, November 2013.


Smith, C., D. Mandelli and C. Rabiti, Station Blackout: A case study in the interaction of mechanistic and probabilistic safety analysis, ANS 2013 Winter Meeting, DC, November 2013.


Mandelli, D., C. Smith, C. Rabiti, A. Alfonsi, R. Kinoshita, and J. Cogliati, New Methods and Tools to Perform Safety Analysis with RISMC, ANS 2013 Winter Meeting, DC, November 2013.


Mandelli, D., T. Aldemir, A. Yilmaz, C. Smith, Mining Nuclear Transient Data Through Symbolic Conversion, PSA 2013 Conference, Columbia S.C., September 2013.


Rabiti, C., et al., RAVEN: a GUI and an Artificial Intelligence Engine in a Dynamic PRA Framework, INL/CON-13-28360, ANS Summer Conference, June 2013.


C. Smith, Extreme Precipitation Modeling, Extreme Flood Risk Assessment Workshop, Albuquerque, May 2013.


C. Smith and R. Furstenau, Safety Research Programs for Accident Management in the US, 1st International Symposium on Safety Measure Improvement and Technical Basis Development for NPPs, Toyko, March 2013.


Mandelli, D. and C. Smith, Adaptive Sampling using Support Vector Machines, November 2012.  Honorable Mention Award at the ANS Winter 2012 Conference.


C. Smith and D. Mandelli, Integrating Safety Assessment Methods using the Risk Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMC) Approach, ANS Winter 2012 Conference, November 2012.


C. Smith, Counting Failure Events for a Support System, ASME IMECE 2012, November 2012.


Smith, C. L. and R. Youngblood, Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization Methods, PSAM 11 Conference Proceedings, Helsinki, June 2012.

 

Smith, C. L., D. Schwieder, and T. Bjornard, Augmenting Probabilistic Risk Assessment with Malevolent Initiators, ASME IMECE 2011, November 2011.

 

Smith, C. L., Representing Common-Cause Failures in the SAPHIRE Software, ASME IMECE 2008, Boston, USA, November 2011.

 

Borgonovo, E. and C. L. Smith, Composite Multilinearity, Epistemic Uncertainty and Risk Achievement Worth, ESREL 2011, September 2011.

 

R. Youngblood, R. Nourgaliev, D. Kelly, C. Smith, and T.-N. Dinh, "Framework for Applying a Next-Generation Safety Analysis Code to Plant Life Extension Decision-Making", ANS Annual Meeting, Florida, June 2011.

 

Borgonovo, E. and C. L. Smith, Uncertainty in Importance Measures: Developing the Epistemic Risk Achievement Worth, ESREL 2011, September 2011.

 

Plischke, E., E. Borgonovo, and C. L. Smith, Estimating Global Sensitivity Measures from Given Data: Fighting the Curse of Dimensionality and and Application to the Risk Assessment of a Lunar Space Mission, ESREL 2011, September 2011.

 

Youngblood, R. W., R. Nourgaliev, D. L. Kelly, C. L. Smith, and T-N. Dinh, Heartbeat Model for Component Failure in Simulation of Plant Behavior, PSA 2011 Conference Proceedings, Wilmington, USA, March 2011.

 

C. Smith, Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Safety and Licensing Issues, SMR Topical Meeting in Idaho Falls, Idaho, February 2011.

 

C. L. Smith, Risk-Informed Decision Making for High-Consequence Outcomes, ASME IMECE 2010, Vancouver, Canada, November 2010.

 

Smith, C. L. and E. Borgonovo, Determining Interactions in PSA models: Application to a Space PSA, PSAM 10 Conference Proceedings, Seattle, USA, June 2010.

 

Borgonovo, E., and C. L. Smith, Total Order Reliability in PSA: Importance of Basic Events and Systems, PSAM 10 Conference Proceedings, Seattle, USA, June 2010.

 

Smith, C. L., D. L. Kelly, K. G. Vedros, A Modern Approach to Bayesian Inference for Risk and Reliability Analysis, ASME IMECE 2009, Florida, USA, November 2009.

 

Smith, C., Future Safety Analyses, INL-CON-09-16436, MeV Summer School, July 2009.

 

Youngblood, R., C. L. Smith, and D. L. Kelly, Observations on the Component Boundary Issue, INL/MIS-09-15945, May 2009.

 

Smith, C., Use of the SAPHIRE Software within NASA, Physics Symposium at ISU, February 2009.

 

Groen, F. and C. Smith, Concept for the NASA risk and Reliability Data Collection and Analysis Environment, Reliability and Maintainability Symposium, RAMS 2009, January 2009.

 

Smith, C., “Representing Common-Cause Failures in the SAPHIRE Software,” ASME IMECE 2008 Conference, November 2008.

 

Kelly, D. and C. L. Smith, “Risk Analysis of the Space Shuttle: Pre-Challenger Bayesian Prediction of Failure,” 7th Space Systems Engineering & Risk Management Symposium, February 2008.

 

Smith, C. “Current Status of the SAPHIRE Risk Analysis Software,” ASME IMECE 2007 Conference, November 2007.

 

Smith, C., “Integrating Reliability Physics Models into PSA - Part I and II,” EC Enlargement and Integration Workshop on Use of PSA for Evaluation of Impact of Ageing Effects on the Safety of Nuclear Power Plants, European Commission JRC Institute for Energy, Romania, October 2006.

 

Prescott, S. and C. L. Smith, Unordered Event Picking for BDD Risk Analysis, PSAM 8 Conference Proceedings, New Orleans, USA, May 2006.

 

Bucci, P., J. Kirschenbaum, T. Aldemir, C. L. Smith, and T. Wood, Constructing Dynamic Event Trees from Markov Models, PSAM 8 Conference Proceedings, New Orleans, USA, May 2006.

 

Galyean, W. and C. L. Smith, SAPHIRE - Past, Present, and Future, PSAM 8 Conference Proceedings, New Orleans, USA, May 2006.

 

Knudsen, J. and C. L. Smith, Space Propulsion System Phased-Mission Probability Analysis Using Conventional PRA Methods, PSAM 8 Conference Proceedings, New Orleans, USA, May 2006.

 

Gertman, D., H. Blackman, J. Marble, C. Smith, R. Boring, P. O’Reilly, “The SPAR-H Human Reliability Analysis Method,” 4th International Topical Meeting on Nuclear Plant Instrumentation, Control and Human-Machine Interface Technologies, 2004.

 

Bye, A., P. Ø. Braarud, and C. Smith, “Improving the Empirical Basis for Human Reliability Assessment by Simulator Experiments,” Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management, PSAM 7 — ESREL ’04, June 14–18, 2004, Berlin, Germany, Volume 6, pp 1212-1218, ISBN 978-1-4471-1057-6, 2004.

 

Smith, C. L., J. A. Schroeder, S. T. Beck, and J. K. Knudsen, Modeling Power Non-Recovery using the SAPHIRE Risk Assessment Software, PSAM 6 Conference Proceedings, San Juan, Puerto Rico, 2002.

 

Smith, C.L., Apostolakis, G.E., and Pagani, L., "An Incident Management System for Nuclear Power Plants," Proceedings of Topical Meeting on Risk Management, San Diego, California, June 2-5, 2003, American Nuclear Society, La Grange Park, Illinois.

 

Knudsen, J.K. and C. L. Smith, Estimation of System Failure Probability Uncertainty Including Model Success Criteria, PSAM 6 Conference Proceedings, San Juan, Puerto Rico, 2002.

 

Borgonovo, E., C. L. Smith, G. Apostolakis, S. Deriot, and J. Dewailly, “Insights from Using Influence Diagrams to Analyze Precursor Events,” PSAM 5 Conference Proceedings, November 27-December 1, 2000, Osaka, Japan.

 

Smith, C. L., G. Apostolakis, T-M. Kao, and V. Shah, Incorporating Aging Effects into Probabilistic Risk Assessment, PSA ’99 Conference Proceedings, Washington DC, USA, August 1999.

 

Knudsen, J.K. and C. L. Smith, “Common Cause Modeling in SAPHIRE,” 17th International System Safety Conference Proceedings, Orlando, Florida, August 16-21, 1999.

 

Smith, C. L., G. Apostolakis, T-M. Kao, and V. Shah, Incorporating Aging Effects into Probabilistic Risk Assessment, Presentation at the NRC Water Reactor Safety Meeting, Washington DC, USA, September 1998.

 

Gertman, D. I., et al., Case Study Evaluation of NUCLARR-Estimated Data, PSAM II, March 1994.

 

Thatcher, T. A., et al., Approach Used for the Advanced Test Reactor Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Shutdown Operation, paper presented at the 1993 ANS Winter Meeting.

 

Smith, C. L., P. G. Ellison, and J. A. Schroeder, Assessing the Risk Impact for the Integration of Surveillance Testing and Maintenance, PSAM II, March 1994.

 

Smith, C. L. and M. B. Calley, Limitations of Calculating Risk-Based Allowable Outage Times at Nuclear Power Plants, SIMULATORS X, Edited by A. Sharon, March 1993.

 

Simion, G. P., et al., Risk Analysis of Highly Combustible Gas Storage, Supply, and Distribution Systems in Pressurized Water Reactor Plants, PSA '93, January 1993.

 

Knudsen, J. K. and C. L. Smith, Parameter Uncertainty for ASP Models, ANS Conference: Operating Safety for Nuclear Reactors, September 1995.

 

Presentations:

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